Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5966 at 12:30, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 5966 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 12:30	DEN 16:22	22%	9%	3.8%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Arcata/Eureka). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest	1h 48m San Francisco	SFO 08:57 → DEN 12:53UA 1469	5h 53m	95%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m San Francisco	SFO 16:26 → DEN 20:08UA 1835	5h 03m	63%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON