Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 324 at 13:28, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 324 United	ACV 13:28	LAX 15:27	22%	10%	5.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m San Francisco	SFO 08:53 → LAX 10:23UA 1457	4h 23m	95%	68%
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m San Francisco	SFO 17:57 → LAX 19:37UA 2282	5h 32m	93%	65%
United Details →	ACV 12:30 → DEN 16:22UA 5966 · flown by SkyWest	1h 13m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LAX 19:01UA 1753	6h 31m	83%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754	4h 00m	63%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON