Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5313 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 34–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 5313 ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 2380 ACV 08:09 → SFO 09:28 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5313 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 06:00	SFO 07:09	13%	9%	13.3%	74%
UA 4632 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 16:04	SFO 17:25	34%	13%	11.1%	17%
UA 4655 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 14:05	SFO 15:22	40%	20%	11.6%	57%
UA 2380 United	ACV 08:09	SFO 09:28	41%	18%	7.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON