tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4774 at 13:16, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4774 Southwest ALB 13:16 BNA 14:37 15% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ALB 06:01 → BWI 07:27WN 167 1h 44m Baltimore BWI 09:11 → BNA 10:06WN 4738 5h 05m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → ALB 06:00 → ATL 08:31DL 2429 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155 5h 09m 98% 90%
AmericanDetails → ALB 05:39 → CLT 07:47AA 440 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295 6h 28m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47UA 2225 2h 50m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 19m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ALB 12:27 → ATL 15:00DL 1137 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 7h 25m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → ALB 07:12 → ORD 08:32AA 3400 · flown by Envoy 3h 00m Chicago ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362 7h 04m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → ALB 06:21 → PHL 07:40AA 5854 · flown by Piedmont 2h 07m Philadelphia PHL 09:47 → BNA 11:09AA 1320 5h 48m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → ALB 09:38 → DTW 11:25DL 3784 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Detroit DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557 4h 25m 90% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ALB 06:05 → DTW 07:41DL 2996 49m Detroit DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682 4h 06m 71% 65%
UnitedDetails → ALB 14:50 → IAD 16:29UA 4942 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 13m Dulles IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264 4h 57m 74% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON