Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5433 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5433 ALB 05:26 → DCA 07:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest AA 5501 ALB 18:28 → DCA 20:04 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5433 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 05:26	DCA 07:04	10%	4%	0.8%	65%
OH 5186 PSA	ALB 10:34	DCA 12:09	16%	4%	0.8%	no record
OH 5454 PSA	ALB 15:07	DCA 16:43	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 18:28	DCA 20:04	26%	6%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON