tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ALB 06:00 → ATL 08:31DL 2429 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → ALB 05:39 → CLT 07:47AA 440 3h 39m Charlotte CLT 11:26 → DFW 13:16AA 2747 8h 37m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47UA 2225 2h 42m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 8h 02m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → ALB 06:21 → PHL 07:40AA 5854 · flown by Piedmont 3h 04m Philadelphia PHL 10:44 → DFW 13:09AA 3326 7h 48m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → ALB 05:27 → DCA 07:05AA 5433 · flown by PSA 2h 54m Washington DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:11AA 795 7h 44m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ALB 08:00 → DEN 10:11UA 2750 3h 34m Denver DEN 13:45 → DFW 16:51UA 578 9h 51m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → ALB 12:27 → ATL 15:00DL 1137 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → DFW 19:05DL 1827 7h 38m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → ALB 08:00 → PHL 09:21AA 5901 · flown by Piedmont 3h 31m Philadelphia PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415 8h 31m 94% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → ALB 13:16 → DTW 15:03DL 3810 · flown by SkyWest 56m Detroit DTW 15:59 → DFW 17:44DL 1441 5h 28m 74% 58%
UnitedDetails → ALB 17:20 → ORD 18:53UA 538 57m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 6h 16m 69% 57%
AmericanDetails → ALB 18:29 → PHL 19:51AA 6024 · flown by Piedmont 55m Philadelphia PHL 20:46 → DFW 23:10AA 1115 5h 41m 69% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON