Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2225 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 2225 ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 538 ALB 17:20 → ORD 18:53 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2225 United Flight history →	ALB 06:10	ORD 07:47	10%	3%	1.5%	86%
UA 1215 United	ALB 09:56	ORD 11:21	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 07:12	ORD 08:32	18%	5%	1.6%	89%
UA 463 United	ALB 12:45	ORD 14:11	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
OO 6233 SkyWest	ALB 12:02	ORD 13:28	23%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 18:38	ORD 20:01	28%	11%	1.4%	79%
UA 538 United Flight history →	ALB 17:20	ORD 18:53	29%	10%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON