tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 186 at 15:21, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 186 Southwest AMA 15:21 AUS 16:55 13% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AMA 05:04 → DFW 06:22AA 4257 · flown by Envoy 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:37 → AUS 09:49AA 794 4h 45m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:22 → DFW 08:40AA 4258 · flown by Envoy 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:43 → AUS 11:55AA 1070 4h 33m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:27UA 2483 6h 27m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 1h 24m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 5h 20m 92% 79%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:31 → DFW 11:48AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 2h 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:36 → AUS 15:48AA 2103 5h 17m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → AMA 11:56 → IAH 13:44UA 4827 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 36m Houston IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27UA 1711 5h 31m 92% 71%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 40m Houston IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57UA 2674 4h 39m 92% 70%
AmericanDetails → AMA 14:57 → DFW 16:15AA 3383 · flown by Envoy 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:16 → AUS 18:22AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 3h 25m 84% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON