Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5221 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 5221 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 08:00	DEN 08:41	12%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 4743 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 17:20	DEN 18:06	22%	11%	0.8%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 41m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	6h 17m	96%	83%
American Details →	AMA 05:04 → DFW 06:22AA 4257 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → DEN 09:42AA 1756	5h 38m	99%	78%
American Details →	AMA 07:22 → DFW 08:40AA 4258 · flown by Envoy	2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	5h 24m	100%	77%
United Details →	AMA 11:56 → IAH 13:44UA 4827 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 16m Houston	IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767	5h 47m	88%	75%
United Details →	AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 09m Houston	IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654	5h 56m	88%	69%
American Details →	AMA 10:31 → DFW 11:48AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:17 → DEN 14:21AA 420	4h 50m	96%	68%
American Details →	AMA 14:57 → DFW 16:15AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:30 → DEN 19:41AA 2235	5h 44m	92%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON