Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4257 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4257 AMA 05:04 → DFW 06:22 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3613 AMA 16:16 → DFW 17:34 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4257 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 05:04	DFW 06:22	6%	4%	1.2%	94%
AA 4258 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 07:22	DFW 08:40	8%	4%	1.1%	89%
AA 3198 American	AMA 05:55	DFW 07:21	8%	6%	1.9%	no record
AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 10:31	DFW 11:48	10%	4%	1.0%	90%
MQ 3337 Envoy	AMA 12:39	DFW 13:57	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 14:57	DFW 16:15	17%	5%	1.1%	84%
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 18:59	DFW 20:17	18%	6%	1.2%	70%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 16:16	DFW 17:34	19%	6%	1.2%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON