Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 12–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4827 AMA 12:02 → IAH 14:02 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest UA 4816 AMA 15:21 → IAH 17:09 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4827 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	AMA 12:02	IAH 14:02	12%	3%	1.2%	83%
UA 4224 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	AMA 09:01	IAH 10:49	13%	3%	1.2%	91%
UA 4816 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	AMA 15:21	IAH 17:09	17%	4%	1.2%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON