Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 188 at 13:41, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 188 Southwest	AMA 13:41	LAS 13:54	20%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 28m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	8h 37m	99%	82%
United Details →	AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526	6h 24m	96%	81%
American Details →	AMA 05:04 → DFW 06:22AA 4257 · flown by Envoy	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:01 → LAS 10:03AA 1550	6h 59m	100%	81%
American Details →	AMA 07:22 → DFW 08:40AA 4258 · flown by Envoy	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → LAS 11:52AA 1482	6h 30m	100%	78%
United Details →	AMA 11:56 → IAH 13:44UA 4827 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 54m Houston	IAH 16:38 → LAS 18:08UA 2190	8h 12m	92%	76%
United Details →	AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 29m Houston	IAH 18:39 → LAS 19:57UA 2406	6h 39m	92%	72%
American Details →	AMA 10:31 → DFW 11:48AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:27 → LAS 16:26AA 1573	7h 55m	99%	67%
American Details →	AMA 14:57 → DFW 16:15AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	3h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771	7h 14m	96%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON