Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	11h 05m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:07AS 593	2h 23m Portland	PDX 07:30 → ATL 15:15AS 784	10h 37m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 09:01 → ATL 17:03DL 560	11h 33m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	2h 55m Seattle	SEA 13:35 → ATL 21:47DL 542	11h 47m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:01 → SEA 13:20AS 221	2h 45m Seattle	SEA 16:05 → ATL 23:59AS 727	10h 58m	100%	80%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 09:05 → ATL 16:57AS 334	11h 00m	99%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON