Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 00:38, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:07AS 593	1h 54m Portland	PDX 07:01 → DEN 10:31AS 684	7h 53m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 08:10 → DEN 12:02DL 1358	8h 32m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 13:50 → DEN 17:43DL 2543	9h 43m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	51m Seattle	SEA 07:19 → DEN 10:53AS 682	6h 56m	87%	69%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:22AS 268	1h 22m Seattle	SEA 11:44 → DEN 15:38AS 535	7h 35m	94%	69%
Alaska Details →	ANC 07:03 → SEA 11:22AS 48	3h 00m Seattle	SEA 14:22 → DEN 17:55AS 602	8h 52m	99%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON