Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 00:38, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:07AS 593	2h 11m Portland	PDX 07:18 → DFW 13:08AS 376	9h 30m	99%	87%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 17m Seattle	SEA 07:45 → DFW 13:49AS 340	8h 52m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	3h 13m Seattle	SEA 09:15 → DFW 15:13DL 803	10h 43m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392	8h 42m	86%	70%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 35m Seattle	SEA 17:55 → DFW 23:55DL 870	9h 13m	90%	69%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:22AS 268	1h 51m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → DFW 18:21AS 549	9h 18m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON