Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 15:52 → DTW 18:35DL 1476	8h 35m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	3h 43m Seattle	SEA 09:45 → DTW 17:04DL 2324	11h 34m	99%	83%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:22 → SEA 06:40AS 98	2h 38m Seattle	SEA 09:18 → DTW 16:33AS 313	10h 11m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	1h 12m Seattle	SEA 11:52 → DTW 19:02DL 1706	9h 02m	95%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON