Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 49 at 16:00, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 49 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 16:00	HNL 20:05	25%	6%	0.8%	84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 2 h behind Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:06AS 593	3h 01m Portland	PDX 08:07 → HNL 10:58AS 962	12h 20m	100%	66%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:01 → SEA 13:19AS 221	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 16:20 → HNL 19:16AS 121	12h 15m	100%	66%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → HNL 11:34DL 351	12h 04m	99%	63%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:21AS 268	3h 09m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → HNL 16:34AS 899	12h 31m	100%	57%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:22 → SEA 06:40AS 98	52m Seattle	SEA 07:32 → HNL 10:33AS 821	10h 11m	84%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON