Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49DL 429	10h 19m	95%	85%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 09:27 → JFK 17:18AS 26	11h 21m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	54m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 15m	91%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 02m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	10h 23m	87%	66%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:22AS 268	3h 04m Seattle	SEA 13:26 → JFK 21:14AS 34	11h 11m	100%	62%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor	12h 09m	99%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON