Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 00:38, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:07AS 593	2h 30m Portland	PDX 07:37 → LAS 09:55AS 627	8h 17m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 23m Seattle	SEA 07:25 → LAS 10:01DL 2922	7h 31m	96%	84%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 39m Seattle	SEA 08:07 → LAS 10:29AS 1363	7h 32m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757	7h 11m	86%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:22AS 268	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 11:31 → LAS 14:16AS 738	7h 13m	91%	64%
Alaska Details →	ANC 07:03 → SEA 11:22AS 48	3h 34m Seattle	SEA 14:56 → LAS 17:17AS 678	9h 14m	100%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON