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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 00:38, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:07AS 593 1h 53m Portland PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:37AS 581 7h 59m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 1h 13m Seattle SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05DL 1628 7h 35m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 1h 55m Seattle SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914 8h 23m 97% 83%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 09:01 → SEA 13:20AS 221 3h 50m Seattle SEA 17:10 → LAX 19:55AS 492 9h 54m 100% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 3h 27m Seattle SEA 09:55 → LAX 12:27AS 1306 9h 30m 100% 78%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:22AS 268 3h 16m Seattle SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696 9h 22m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon 1h 00m Portland PDX 10:45 → LAX 13:20AS 695 7h 20m 86% 73%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 1h 10m Seattle SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 7h 31m 90% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON