Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 07:03, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 447 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	MSP 14:18	6%	3%	0.6%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → MSP 19:54DL 942	10h 54m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 08:35 → MSP 13:57AS 555	9h 00m	99%	84%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:22AS 268	2h 01m Seattle	SEA 12:23 → MSP 17:29AS 772	8h 26m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 19m Portland	PDX 11:04 → MSP 16:15AS 714	8h 15m	88%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON