Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 3 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 07:20 → ORD 13:28DL 2055	8h 58m	96%	81%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:07AS 593	1h 53m Portland	PDX 07:00 → ORD 13:13AS 324	9h 35m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 17:45 → ORD 19:30DL 2130	10h 30m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 06m Seattle	SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265	9h 49m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 20m Seattle	SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108	8h 56m	90%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON