Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 593 ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 567 ANC 16:01 → PDX 20:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AS 593 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 00:38	PDX 05:07	6%	1%	0.7%	93%
AS 329 Alaska	ANC 09:05	PDX 13:34	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 318 Alaska	ANC 12:11	PDX 16:35	14%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 567 Alaska	ANC 16:01	PDX 20:30	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
AS 2398 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	ANC 05:00	PDX 09:45	14%	10%	3.8%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON