tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Alaska via Portland, leaving 00:38, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:07AS 593 1h 53m Portland PDX 07:00 → PHX 09:49AS 1349 8h 11m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 2h 23m Seattle SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419 8h 50m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 2h 50m Seattle SEA 13:30 → PHX 16:41DL 2442 9h 41m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:22AS 268 3h 22m Seattle SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700 9h 42m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 49m Seattle SEA 07:17 → PHX 10:20AS 606 7h 23m 86% 73%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 07:03 → SEA 11:22AS 48 3h 26m Seattle SEA 14:48 → PHX 17:34AS 744 9h 31m 100% 70%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 09:01 → SEA 13:20AS 221 3h 24m Seattle SEA 16:44 → PHX 19:30AS 746 9h 29m 100% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON