Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 925 at 01:30 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 925 ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1472 ANC 15:57 → SEA 20:16 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 925 Delta Flight history →	ANC 01:30	SEA 06:02	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 853 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	SEA 10:40	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
AS 98 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:57	SEA 06:28	8%	1%	0.9%	88%
AS 1380 Alaska	ANC 01:20	SEA 05:39	10%	1%	0.9%	no record
DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	ANC 11:42	SEA 16:20	10%	2%	0.6%	95%
AS 532 Alaska	ANC 01:53	SEA 06:12	10%	1%	0.9%	no record
DL 833 Delta	ANC 07:58	SEA 12:21	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1439 Alaska	ANC 00:23	SEA 04:42	11%	2%	0.9%	no record
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	ANC 14:12	SEA 18:46	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 48 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 07:03	SEA 11:22	14%	2%	0.9%	88%
AS 221 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 09:01	SEA 13:20	15%	2%	0.9%	98%worse than usual
AS 268 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 06:03	SEA 10:22	16%	2%	0.9%	86%
AS 1462 Alaska	ANC 07:59	SEA 12:17	16%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1460 Alaska	ANC 09:40	SEA 13:59	17%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1458 Alaska	ANC 11:17	SEA 15:36	17%	2%	1.1%	no record
AS 1474 Alaska	ANC 10:18	SEA 14:37	17%	2%	0.9%	no record
AS 1464 Alaska	ANC 12:17	SEA 16:35	19%	2%	1.1%	no record
AS 1338 Alaska	ANC 14:34	SEA 18:53	21%	3%	1.2%	no record
AS 1472 Alaska	ANC 15:57	SEA 20:16	23%	3%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON