Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → SFO 16:49DL 3707 · flown by SkyWest	9h 49m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	49m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	10h 12m	85%	73%
Alaska Details →	ANC 00:38 → PDX 05:06AS 593	2h 13m Portland	PDX 07:19 → SFO 09:16AS 526	7h 38m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:01 → SEA 13:19AS 221	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 15:38 → SFO 17:38AS 1385	7h 37m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 07:17 → SFO 09:25DL 1053	6h 55m	96%	65%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:21AS 268	2h 59m Seattle	SEA 13:20 → SFO 15:31AS 680	8h 28m	100%	63%
Alaska Details →	ANC 02:22 → SEA 06:40AS 98	2h 13m Seattle	SEA 08:53 → SFO 11:09AS 528	7h 47m	99%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON