Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	12h 07m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 07:15 → SLC 10:26DL 2858	6h 56m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	8h 40m	98%	80%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 03m Portland	PDX 10:48 → SLC 13:50AS 3355 · flown by SkyWest	6h 50m	87%	74%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 39m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	7h 24m	90%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 09:08 → SLC 12:03AS 661	8h 06m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 06:03 → SEA 10:22AS 268	1h 29m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04AS 733	7h 01m	95%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON