Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, OO 3840 at 07:36, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 3840 SkyWest	ASE 07:36	ATL 13:15	11%	7%	2.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 2 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ASE 08:34 → DEN 09:40UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	7h 56m	100%	82%
United Details →	ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Denver	DEN 10:15 → ATL 15:30UA 2806	6h 00m	93%	79%
United Details →	ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Denver	DEN 17:55 → ATL 23:11UA 248	8h 04m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 16:40 → ATL 00:30 +1DL 471	10h 27m	97%	77%
American Details →	ASE 07:46 → DFW 11:03AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:18 → ATL 16:48AA 2398	7h 02m	98%	75%
American Details →	ASE 07:04 → ORD 10:51AA 6386 · flown by SkyWest	2h 04m Chicago	ORD 12:55 → ATL 16:10AA 616	7h 06m	93%	71%
United Details →	ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → ATL 21:41UA 1398	7h 02m	88%	66%
United Details →	ASE 13:20 → IAH 17:04UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Houston	IAH 18:08 → ATL 21:19UA 2240	5h 59m	84%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON