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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 1h 17m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 4h 50m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:15 → DEN 10:33UA 5770 · flown by SkyWest 3h 11m Denver DEN 13:44 → AUS 16:58UA 2270 6h 43m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Denver DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899 6h 16m 96% 76%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:46 → DFW 11:03AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:33 → AUS 13:46AA 1852 5h 00m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:04 → LAX 09:20UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 1h 39m Los Angeles LAX 10:59 → AUS 16:17UA 1496 7h 13m 93% 72%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 2h 01m Denver DEN 18:39 → AUS 21:57UA 1942 5h 32m 89% 70%
DeltaDetails → ASE 12:03 → LAX 13:24DL 4133 · flown by SkyWest 2h 31m Los Angeles LAX 15:55 → AUS 20:58DL 622 7h 55m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:20 → IAH 17:04UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Houston IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57UA 2674 5h 37m 90% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON