Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 5766 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 5766 ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5776 ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:30	DEN 08:48	12%	6%	2.9%	89%
UA 4647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:34	DEN 09:40	13%	5%	3.0%	89%
UA 5770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:15	DEN 10:33	14%	6%	2.8%	83%
OO 5589 SkyWest	ASE 14:19	DEN 15:25	15%	10%	2.4%	no record
UA 5772 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:32	DEN 12:45	17%	7%	2.8%	77%
UA 5774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:07	DEN 14:20	18%	10%	2.5%	76%
UA 5778 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 17:10	DEN 18:23	21%	10%	2.1%	73%
UA 5776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 15:25	DEN 16:38	22%	11%	1.7%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON