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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 5702 at 13:20, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5702 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 13:20 IAH 17:04 17% 12% 1.8% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Denver DEN 11:34 → IAH 15:09UA 1599 6h 39m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:34 → DEN 09:40UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 50m Denver DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829 7h 30m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:04 → LAX 09:20UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Los Angeles LAX 12:00 → IAH 17:38UA 1477 8h 34m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Denver DEN 16:20 → IAH 19:57UA 588 7h 25m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 48m Denver DEN 18:08 → IAH 21:40UA 1055 7h 33m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Chicago ORD 18:16 → IAH 21:08UA 1921 7h 29m 87% 65%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:46 → DFW 11:03AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:57 → IAH 13:15AA 1397 4h 29m 84% 63%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:04 → ORD 10:51AA 6386 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Chicago ORD 13:23 → IAH 16:03AA 2302 7h 59m 95% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON