tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5851 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 08:04 LAX 09:20 14% 8% 4.7% 81%
DL 4133 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 12:03 LAX 13:24 15% 12% 6.5% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:34 → DEN 09:40UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 46m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 7h 23m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013 6h 47m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 6h 43m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:46 → DFW 11:03AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:19 → LAX 14:39AA 1275 7h 53m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 15m Denver DEN 17:35 → LAX 19:01UA 1753 6h 54m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → ASE 09:59 → SFO 11:48UA 4657 · flown by SkyWest 2h 07m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → LAX 15:35UA 2610 6h 36m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:20 → IAH 17:04UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Houston IAH 18:40 → LAX 20:19UA 2658 7h 59m 89% 70%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:04 → ORD 10:51AA 6386 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Chicago ORD 12:13 → LAX 14:38AA 3008 8h 34m 89% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON