Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 4631 ASE 08:25 → ORD 12:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5956 ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 4631 SkyWest	ASE 08:25	ORD 12:15	15%	10%	3.8%	no record
AA 6386 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:04	ORD 10:51	16%	8%	4.3%	69%
UA 5956 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 12:39	ORD 16:45	20%	16%	3.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON