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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 4657 at 09:59, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 09:59 SFO 11:48 16% 16% 4.8% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:34 → DEN 09:40UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 45m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 7h 35m 100% 74%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 6h 58m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 6h 34m 97% 72%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 33m 96% 71%
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:04 → LAX 09:20UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Los Angeles LAX 11:55 → SFO 13:34UA 1245 6h 30m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:46 → DFW 11:03AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:13 → SFO 14:59AA 2325 8h 13m 98% 64%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:20 → IAH 17:04UA 5702 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m Houston IAH 18:05 → SFO 20:20UA 2607 8h 00m 84% 62%
UnitedDetails → ASE 12:39 → ORD 16:45UA 5956 · flown by SkyWest 1h 40m Chicago ORD 18:25 → SFO 20:51UA 649 9h 12m 89% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON