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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Seattle, leaving 07:40, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444 3h 46m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 12h 45m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825 2h 04m Minneapolis MSP 18:10 → ANC 21:00DL 377 10h 29m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629 2h 41m Seattle SEA 17:31 → ANC 20:26DL 2367 11h 53m 99% 79%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 07:03 → SEA 09:12AS 377 2h 59m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434 11h 54m 98% 72%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348 2h 01m Seattle SEA 13:21 → ANC 16:08AS 1440 11h 14m 96% 70%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 18:00 → PDX 20:24AS 783 1h 06m Portland PDX 21:30 → ANC 00:25 +1AS 2192 · flown by Horizon 10h 25m 89% 69%
AmericanDetails → ATL 11:03 → DFW 12:32AA 820 2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:09 → ANC 19:27AA 399 12h 24m 96% 69%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745 1h 24m Chicago ORD 16:05 → ANC 19:48UA 461 10h 30m 89% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348 51m Seattle SEA 12:11 → ANC 14:57AS 1434 10h 03m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON