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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 15:28, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Appleton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005 3h 42m Detroit DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest 7h 09m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646 1h 06m Detroit DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 4h 29m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → ATL 09:20 → DTW 11:10DL 1298 1h 48m Detroit DTW 12:58 → ATW 13:25DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor 5h 05m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031 1h 42m Detroit DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest 5h 03m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745 3h 36m Chicago ORD 18:17 → ATW 19:32UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → ATL 16:38 → MSP 18:18DL 2654 3h 27m Minneapolis MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor 7h 20m 99% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON