Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 510 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 510 ATL 06:06 → AUS 07:28 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4211 ATL 16:29 → AUS 18:02 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 510 Southwest	ATL 06:06	AUS 07:28	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	AUS 09:27	7%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	AUS 11:03	9%	2%	0.6%	87%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	AUS 12:25	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
WN 191 Southwest	ATL 11:11	AUS 12:35	10%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	AUS 13:54	12%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:15	AUS 15:50	13%	3%	0.6%	80%
WN 192 Southwest	ATL 18:41	AUS 20:06	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	AUS 17:19	15%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 1081 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	AUS 22:07	17%	3%	0.6%	60%
DL 1170 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	AUS 20:22	18%	4%	0.6%	72%
F9 4211 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:29	AUS 18:02	25%	10%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON