Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3077 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3077 ATL 08:15 → AVL 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3071 ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3077 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	AVL 09:16	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 3059 Delta	ATL 09:58	AVL 11:07	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:16	AVL 13:12	11%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 3099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:45	AVL 14:40	13%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 3101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:11	AVL 17:20	15%	4%	0.8%	82%
DL 3071 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:37	AVL 20:41	18%	4%	0.8%	80%
DL 5121 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 17:02	AVL 18:10	49%	23%	2.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON