Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2951 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 2951 ATL 08:10 → BDL 10:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2504 ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2951 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	BDL 10:30	8%	1%	0.6%	91%
DL 1082 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:22	BDL 12:45	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2739 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:56	BDL 16:16	13%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 2735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:34	BDL 17:59	16%	3%	0.6%	77%
DL 2765 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:31	BDL 22:56	17%	3%	0.6%	73%
DL 2504 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:56	BDL 21:19	18%	3%	0.6%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON