Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3100 ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1132 ATL 17:59 → BHM 17:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	BHM 08:25	4%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:15	BHM 11:10	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3164 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	BHM 09:57	6%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:31	BHM 13:24	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 3202 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	BHM 19:58	10%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:14	BHM 15:10	10%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	BHM 16:22	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 3044 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:02	BHM 19:04	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 1132 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	BHM 17:55	11%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON