Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 193 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 193 ATL 07:11 → BNA 07:26 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 758 ATL 17:53 → BNA 18:05 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 193 Southwest	ATL 07:11	BNA 07:26	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:31	BNA 08:41	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	BNA 10:09	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	BNA 11:30	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 3002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:30	BNA 21:44	11%	3%	0.6%	76%
WN 194 Southwest	ATL 13:06	BNA 13:21	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:54	BNA 14:03	11%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:13	BNA 15:26	12%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 790 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:26	BNA 14:38	12%	3%	0.6%	67%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:31	BNA 18:52	13%	3%	0.6%	73%
DL 758 Delta	ATL 17:53	BNA 18:05	16%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON