Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 987 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 987 ATL 07:05 → BOS 09:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1396 ATL 17:40 → BOS 20:22 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 987 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:05	BOS 09:39	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2432 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	BOS 11:06	8%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 855 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	BOS 12:45	11%	3%	0.6%	87%
B6 1896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 07:20	BOS 09:55	11%	5%	1.0%	80%
DL 862 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BOS 13:47	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
F9 3512 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:16	BOS 10:57	16%	5%	1.0%	75%
DL 1293 Delta	ATL 12:22	BOS 15:00	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 457 Delta	ATL 19:57	BOS 22:35	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 821 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:15	BOS 21:00	20%	7%	0.6%	69%
DL 726 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:58	BOS 16:44	22%	7%	0.6%	69%
B6 896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 12:06	BOS 14:44	23%	13%	0.7%	64%
DL 518 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	BOS 19:30	24%	8%	0.6%	59%
DL 2595 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	BOS 18:00	26%	11%	0.6%	66%
B6 1396 JetBlue	ATL 17:40	BOS 20:22	37%	22%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON