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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 483 at 11:19, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 483 Delta Flight history → ATL 11:19 BUR 12:55 15% 2% 0.9% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 2h 55m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 9h 02m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 8h 48m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → ATL 06:30 → SFO 08:35UA 571 1h 48m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 8h 19m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 08:54 → SEA 11:20AS 348 2h 35m Seattle SEA 13:55 → BUR 16:24AS 529 10h 30m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → ATL 13:29 → DFW 14:58AA 1276 3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:54 → BUR 20:26AA 2597 9h 57m 97% 66%
FrontierDetails → ATL 08:46 → LAS 10:10F9 4891 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 11:15 → BUR 12:41F9 4107 6h 55m 82% 65%
UnitedDetails → ATL 08:53 → DEN 10:28UA 340 47m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 55m 77% 64%
AlaskaDetails → ATL 07:03 → SEA 09:12AS 377 59m Seattle SEA 10:11 → BUR 12:40AS 478 8h 37m 84% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON