Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4875 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 4875 ATL 06:01 → BWI 08:10 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2634 ATL 13:38 → BWI 15:34 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4875 Southwest	ATL 06:01	BWI 08:10	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 1592 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	BWI 09:24	5%	1%	0.6%	89%
WN 296 Southwest	ATL 09:21	BWI 11:30	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 801 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:55	BWI 10:47	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2711 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BWI 13:01	10%	2%	0.6%	89%
F9 2510 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 07:24	BWI 09:42	10%	4%	1.0%	69%
WN 199 Southwest	ATL 14:31	BWI 16:40	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2799 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:02	BWI 15:53	12%	3%	0.6%	81%
WN 1340 Southwest	ATL 18:41	BWI 20:49	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 2928 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	BWI 20:04	15%	4%	0.6%	72%
DL 1267 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:20	BWI 17:15	16%	4%	0.6%	69%
DL 1257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:30	BWI 21:26	18%	5%	0.6%	70%
F9 2634 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 13:38	BWI 15:34	28%	9%	0.9%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON