Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 406 at 11:09, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 406 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:09	BZN 13:11	8%	2%	0.5%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 10:58 → BZN 12:31DL 2946	7h 06m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	3h 30m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest	8h 48m	99%	91%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:56 → BZN 10:59AA 952	6h 58m	98%	89%
United Details →	ATL 08:53 → DEN 10:28UA 340	3h 16m Denver	DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513	8h 40m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:40 → SEA 09:54DL 444	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 11:40 → BZN 14:35DL 4104 · flown by SkyWest	8h 55m	97%	83%
American Details →	ATL 08:22 → DFW 09:55AA 1567	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:14 → BZN 15:16AA 947	8h 54m	98%	83%
United Details →	ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745	2h 06m Chicago	ORD 16:47 → BZN 19:05UA 1920	7h 47m	95%	78%
Alaska Details →	ATL 07:03 → SEA 09:12AS 377	2h 36m Seattle	SEA 11:48 → BZN 14:24AS 277	9h 21m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON