Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1590 ATL 10:06 → CAE 11:14 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3032 ATL 16:14 → CAE 17:22 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1590 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:06	CAE 11:14	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2944 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:00	CAE 12:59	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 3193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:05	CAE 15:06	10%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 3008 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:07	CAE 21:15	13%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2193 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:33	CAE 18:41	14%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 3032 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:14	CAE 17:22	14%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 5091 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 10:05	CAE 11:14	7%	0%	0.0%	93%
DL 5001 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	ATL 20:10	CAE 21:19	40%	25%	3.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON