Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1500 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1500 ATL 07:25 → CLE 09:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4036 ATL 18:57 → CLE 21:01 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1500 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:25	CLE 09:10	7%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 2978 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	CLE 11:32	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 775 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:50	CLE 13:32	13%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 2545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:36	CLE 15:20	15%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1350 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:51	CLE 18:42	18%	5%	0.7%	79%
DL 2150 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:53	CLE 20:45	19%	5%	0.7%	70%
DL 1339 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:55	CLE 21:45	19%	5%	0.7%	78%
F9 2410 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:56	CLE 11:49	22%	7%	0.9%	74%
F9 4036 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 18:57	CLE 21:01	29%	14%	1.0%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON