Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 3144 at 07:38 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 3144 ATL 07:38 → CLT 08:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 5067 ATL 19:19 → CLT 20:32 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3144 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:38	CLT 08:49	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
OH 5216 PSA	ATL 06:01	CLT 07:14	6%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 3190 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CLT 11:26	8%	2%	0.4%	87%
DL 2157 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:20	CLT 13:31	10%	2%	0.4%	84%
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 08:13	CLT 09:26	10%	4%	0.9%	88%
OH 5552 PSA	ATL 12:26	CLT 13:39	11%	5%	0.8%	no record
OH 5207 PSA	ATL 10:21	CLT 11:34	11%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 3139 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:40	CLT 21:57	12%	4%	0.5%	74%
DL 3031 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:00	CLT 16:17	15%	4%	0.5%	74%
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 16:22	CLT 17:35	16%	6%	0.9%	67%
DL 3158 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:00	CLT 18:19	16%	4%	0.5%	70%
DL 2132 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:00	CLT 20:11	17%	4%	0.5%	72%
AA 5067 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ATL 19:19	CLT 20:32	18%	6%	1.2%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON