Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1479 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1479 ATL 07:30 → CMH 09:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2540 ATL 17:26 → CMH 19:16 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	CMH 09:02	4%	1%	0.6%	90%
WN 203 Southwest	ATL 09:31	CMH 11:15	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CMH 11:48	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:06	CMH 13:38	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:21	CMH 16:03	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:33	CMH 22:15	11%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:25	CMH 19:03	12%	3%	0.6%	74%
DL 1545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	CMH 21:33	12%	3%	0.6%	67%
F9 2540 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:26	CMH 19:16	26%	8%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON