Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 963 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 963 ATL 07:35 → CVG 08:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 4771 ATL 09:41 → CVG 11:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 963 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:35	CVG 08:56	5%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 3160 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:59	CVG 11:25	8%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 3149 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	CVG 12:28	11%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 1008 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	CVG 16:41	12%	3%	0.5%	79%
DL 2248 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:32	CVG 21:01	13%	3%	0.6%	76%
DL 3169 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:48	CVG 15:11	13%	2%	0.5%	80%
DL 3119 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:59	CVG 19:25	14%	3%	0.5%	78%
F9 4771 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 09:41	CVG 11:13	20%	6%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON